Meme Shares and Systematic Threat
“Meme shares” are a dangerous bunch. Vulnerable to wild and unpredictable swings based mostly on rumors and web message board discussions, they’re traded largely by retail traders in the hunt for the following massive factor and with little regard for valuation fashions or the enterprise’s underlying fundamentals.
Whereas the actions of meme shares happen seemingly at random and exhibit unsystematic danger, how do meme shares transfer relative to inventory market indices and different meme shares?
As soon as a inventory turns into a meme, we discovered, it not solely displays higher complete danger, or volatility, but additionally higher correlation with US inventory indices and with different meme shares. Actually, as soon as a inventory achieves meme standing, its correlation with different meme shares jumps over 80%, in keeping with our estimates.
So what’s a meme inventory? In our evaluation, we outline them based mostly on their prominence on Reddit’s WallStreetBets dialogue board. As soon as a inventory crossed a selected consideration threshold on the discussion board, we categorized it as a meme and recorded the date when it reached that benchmark. AMC Theatres, GameStop, Tesla, Mattress Tub & Past, and Tilray, amongst others, all attracted the requisite consideration on WallStreetBets, in addition to amongst retail merchants and the media, to qualify as memes and have been added to our listing.
Utilizing this dataset, we first examined how a inventory’s correlation with varied indices modified as soon as it turned a meme. We discovered meme shares jumped most in correlation with the Russell 2000 as soon as they enter meme territory: Their correlation coefficient elevated from 0.29 to 0.39. Their correlation with the S&P 500 rose from 0.26 to 0.27.
Massive transfer days we outlined as these when a meme inventory’s value swung a minimum of 10%. When a meme inventory jumped 10% or increased, the S&P 500 rose 0.26% on common. On days when a meme inventory fell 10% or extra, the S&P 500 elevated a mean of 0.13%. Once more, this highlights a optimistic correlation between meme shares and the market.
|Expertise Choose Index||S&P 500 Index||Russell 2000 Index|
|Meme Shares (Earlier than)||0.244||0.260||0.288|
|Meme Shares (After)||0.285||0.269||0.394|
So how did the correlation of meme shares change over time?
The common correlation amongst pre-meme shares was 0.21. As soon as they turned meme shares, nonetheless, their correlation with each other jumped to 0.38. That’s greater than an 80% enhance in co-movement with fellow meme shares.
For context, GameStop and AMC had a correlation coefficient of 0.08 earlier than they turned memes. As soon as they crossed the meme threshold, their correlation with one another jumped to 0.45.
Volatility on an unadjusted foundation additionally rose considerably as soon as a inventory attained meme standing. Pre-meme shares had a mean volatility of 83%. That jumped to 106% as soon as they turned memes. As an illustration, AMC’s volatility spiked from 134% on an annualized foundation pre-meme to 239% post-meme.
Meme Inventory Correlation
|Earlier than Changing into Meme Shares||0.208|
|After Changing into Meme Shares||0.378|
In all, shares traded far more intently with the Russell 2000 small-cap index and with different meme shares after they turned memes. This elevated correlation suggests a danger that traders could need to take note of.
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