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(Bloomberg) — Florida’s Big Bend coast may be battered by a hurricane early on Monday as a storm currently over Cuba gathers strength while moving across the Gulf of Mexico.
While the official outlook calls for wind speeds to peak just below hurricane strength, forecast models “indicate some potential for the system to reach hurricane strength before it makes landfall,” Brad Reinhart, a senior hurricane specialist at the US National Hurricane Center, wrote in a forecast.
Hurricane watches have been posted for the region for the storm that will likely be called Debby.
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Currently a tropical depression – the weakest kind of storm – the system was near Cuba and about 195 miles (314 km) south-southeast of Key West, Florida, as of 5 a.m. Saturday, New York time. It’s forecast to move into the Gulf where warm waters will allow it to build.
“There is no real hindrance for development,” said Matt Rinde, a meteorologist with the commercial forecaster AccuWeather Inc. “That water is extremely warm; it is well above average for this time of year. It is going to have a great opportunity to strengthen in there as it goes northward.”
While the storm would likely touch off power outages across Florida and the South, it’s tracking too far east to impact offshore oil and natural gas operations in the western Gulf of Mexico, sparing energy markets any great shock. Debby would be the fourth storm of the season, which is expected to be one of the most active on record because of the Atlantic’s heat.
Warm ocean water acts as kindling for storms. Beryl exploded into the earliest Category 5 hurricane seen in the Atlantic when it ripped across the Caribbean before finally making landfall in Texas in July.
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Rinde said AccuWeather believes Debby may reach Category 1 strength on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale when it made landfall about 6 a.m. Monday in Florida. The big wrinkle is what happens after that, since some outlooks suggest the storm will pass across the US Southeast and then get stuck off the South Carolina coast, where it would bring days of heavy rain to the region.
In addition to high winds, Debby would likely drop upwards of 15 inches (38 cm) of rain in parts of Florida and across the Southeast, as well as pushing a storm surge of up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) into the coast line, the hurricane center said.
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