Charting the Global Economy: US Job Growth Softer Than Forecast

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(Bloomberg) — US employers added fewer workers in August than forecast and job growth in the prior two months was marked down, further evidence of a softening labor market that’s fueling debate over how much the Federal Reserve should reduce interest rates.

Shortly after the figures were released, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech that he was “open-minded” about the potential for a bigger rate cut and would advocate for one if appropriate. “The current batch of data no longer requires patience, it requires action,” he said. US central bankers meet on Sept. 17-18.

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Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:

US

Hiring fell short of forecasts in August after downward revisions to the prior two months. Payrolls rose 142,000 and job growth in the prior two months was revised down. Employment last month was weighed down by job losses in the manufacturing, retail trade and information sectors.

Manufacturing activity shrank in August for a fifth month, reflecting faster rates of declines in orders and production. Declining orders and a persistent retreat in backlogs remain headwinds to production and illustrate a struggling manufacturing sector. While the Institute for Supply Management gauge of factory employment rose, it still showed a third month of contraction.

Former President Donald Trump’s proposals for targeted tax breaks are resonating with battleground-state voters, who overwhelmingly approve of his ideas to eliminate taxes on tipped income and retirement benefits.

Europe

Volkswagen AG is considering factory closures in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history, parting with tradition and risking a feud with unions in a step that reflects the deep woes roiling Europe’s auto industry. After years of ignoring overcapacity and slumping competitiveness, the German auto giant’s moves are likely to kick off a broader reckoning in the industry.

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The Swedish government plans to scrap an aviation tax from July next year to help domestic business in a controversial move that is also expected to increase carbon emissions in the country that coined the phrase “flying shame.” The Swedish government has been criticized for backsliding on climate policies after previous spending plans that led to increased emissions.

German industrial production dropped in July — highlighting the underlying troubles of Europe’s largest economy after it unexpectedly shrank last quarter. Output decreased 2.4% from June, worse than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Automotive was the main driver, though most sectors were down.

Asia

China’s services activity expanded less than expected, adding to worries over the economy’s health. The findings add to a picture of an economy at risk of stalling. Official data published last weekend showed service industries from restaurants to tourism near contraction during the last month of summer.

Japan’s ministries have set a new record with their budget requests for the year starting April 2025, as the nation wrestles with the need to ramp up social security and defense spending while keeping its mountain of debt under control.

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Job fairs overcrowded with disillusioned graduates are a stark reality check for bullish investors betting on India as the next big global growth engine. For all the optimism that’s luring investment from the likes of Apple Inc., the reality across most cities and villages is that the “boom” just isn’t creating enough quality jobs for the millions of people entering the workforce each year. 

Emerging Markets

Brazil’s economic growth picked up much more than expected in the second quarter, powered by strong consumer spending, raising the prospect of interest-rate hikes in the near future. Gross domestic product expanded a whopping 1.4% in the April-June period, which surpassed all forecasts in Bloomberg survey and was far more than what economists were predicting at the beginning of the period.

World

The Bank of Canada lowered interest rates for a third straight meeting. — Chile cut. Poland’s central bank left borrowing costs unchanged, as did Malaysia and Egypt.

—With assistance from John Ainger, Elisabeth Behrmann, Ruchi Bhatia, Swati Gupta, Gregory Korte, Lucille Liu, Monica Raymunt, Niclas Rolander, Andrew Rosati, Zoe Schneeweiss, Erica Yokoyama, Augusta Saraiva and Mark Schroers.

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