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(Bloomberg) — Europe is set for an unusually warm start to September, following a summer of heat waves and drought in the southeast of the continent.
Temperatures on the mainland are forecast to be 5C to 8C above the 30-year average at the beginning of the month, according to Atmospheric G2. Southern Germany, the Balkans, Ukraine and the Baltics will be particularly warm, said Matthew Dross, a meteorologist at forecaster Maxar Technologies Inc.
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Global warming is extending summer heat into September and even October in Europe. That’s increasing the threat from extreme weather events, such as floods, violent storms and wildfires, but milder conditions could also delay the start of the heating season in a repeat of 2023.
September is important for energy traders, as contracts for the heating season are negotiated at the end of the month. Surging cooling demand pushed power prices to a record in Italy in August, but winter will provide a bigger test for the wider region.
Drought conditions will also extend into September in some areas, including much of Iberia, the Balkans and eastern Europe, according to Jason Nicholls, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc.
Beyond the middle of the month, the outlook is uncertain as it will depend upon influence of a warm Atlantic Ocean and an emerging La Niña, Maxar said. Atlantic temperatures have been near record highs for several months, and historically that has warmed Europe during September.
The remnants of tropical systems could also be a “wildcard for September,” potentially hitting the UK, France and Iberia with heavy rain and strong winds, said Nicholls at AccuWeather.
Last week, the remnants of Hurricane Ernesto triggered yellow weather warnings for Scotland as Storm Lilian blew in from the Atlantic.
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